Thursday, November 02, 2023

Predicting The TNF Winners (Week 9 2023)

My spreadsheet and database have a mild recommended play on the total for tonight's Thursday Night Football game which will be played between the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

As per usual, I have used the results of the spreadsheet and compared them to results of the fixture dating back to the mid-1990s.

The spreadsheet predicts that thirty-nine points will be score. With the line set at 37, it's making a case for a play on the Over.

I have looked at the database and the Over-Under has a record of 16-11-1 in all games in the period. That's a 59% strike-rate. However, if I were to narrow it down to only games played in Pittsburgh - where tonight's game is set to be played - the percentage increases to 64% and an Over-Under score of 9-5.

I also wanted to take a look at the times the games had lines of 37, but there aren't any for the period. I have looked at the next best - 36.5.

36.5 has been the line on three occasions. Those years were 2000, 2001 and 2010. The first two years were from games played in Pittsburgh and both went Over the total. The 2010 game, in Tennessee, saw the game fall below the line when the Steelers were victorious with a score of 19-10.

My spreadsheet has the Titans, despite being +2.5 underdogs, to win the game by three points. The database does not throw anything at me which makes me feel comfortable selecting the side.
  • The Titans are 14-14 straight up in these meetings and 5-9 when the games have been played in Pittsburgh
  • The Titans are 13-15 against the spread and 5-9 against the spread in Pittsburgh
  • The Titans are 9-8 when cast as underdogs in all of these fixtures and are 4-7 as road underdogs to the Steelers
It's just one mild lean on the Over.

Recommended Play
Over 37

This is the third official recommended play since the start of the 2023 season. The spreadsheet and database so far have a record of 1-1 for this year's Thursday Night Football games.

Thursday Night Football Betting - Week 9 2023

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