Thursday, October 12, 2023

Predicting The TNF Week 6 Winners (2023)

After over a month of waiting, my spreadsheet and database found relatable suggestions for last week's edition of Thursday Night Football.

It predicted the game would see Washington cover the six-point spread against the Chicago Bears and for the total number of points to exceed the bookmakers' line of 44.5.

The game ended 40-20 in favour of the Bears meaning the projected plays went 1-1.

NFL Thursday Night Football 2023 (After Week 5)

As for tonight - the spreadsheet has the Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Denver Broncos by ten points and for fifty-four points to be scored.

Therefore, the lines to look at are Denver +10.5 and Over 47. 

The database only has one thing that stood out for a recommended play on the Broncos, but it - in my opinion - isn't enough to warrant a 'recommended play'.

When the Broncos have been double digit underdogs in these games, they have covered the spread three times out of three. If I were to narrow it down to double digit road dogs against the Chiefs, they're 2-0.

It's even difficult to make a case for the over because, well, everything is even and you'll see below.

Here are the other findings from my research. As I said, nothing leads me to select either Denver or the Over for this week. All of these results date back to 1995.

  • Denver is 25-32 straight up in all games against the Chiefs since 1995
  • Denver is 10-19 straight up in Kansas City
  • Denver is 28-27-2 against the spread in these meetings 
  • Denver is 15-13-1 against the spread in Kansas City 
  • The Over-Under is 27-27-3 in these games 
  • The Over-Under is 14-14-1 when the fixtures have been played in Kansas City

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