Friday, January 20, 2023

NFL Playoff Betting (2022 Season): Divisional Round

I am currently 2-2 in picking sides and totals during the NFL 2022 playoffs.

Of the six games from the wild card round of the post-season, my spreadsheet - combined with a database with betting results dating back to 2001 - lost with plays on the Cincinnati Bengals -8.5 (they won 24-17 against the Ravens) and the Seattle Seahawks +9.5 (41-23 losers against the 49ers) but prevailed with a couple of wins with the New York Giants +3 (outright winners against the Vikings) and a sneaky Under 45.5 in the game between the Cowboys and Buccaneers, which ended in a score of 31-14 to Dallas.

Just like I did for last weekend's fixtures, I have created spreadsheets for the four divisional games that will played this weekend and will then refer to history to see if I can bet on anything.

Jacksonville @ Kansas City
My spreadsheet has the Chiefs winning by six points and for the total amount of points to be fifty-two. 

As of right now, the Chiefs are six-point favourites and the total has a line of 52.5. Therefore, the spreadsheet is recommending a play on the Jaguars +6 and the Under.

Here are the results from a search on the database.
  • The Jaguars are 3-5 when they are cast as underdogs against the Chiefs
  • The Jags are 2-3 as road dogs when visiting Kansas City
  • The Under is 7-5 overall
  • The Under is 5-2 when the games have taken place in Kansas City
I'm Going With
Under 52.5

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
The spreadsheet is recommending a play on the New York Giants to cover as +7.5 underdogs to the Eagles. However, they have Philadelphia winning straight up by five points.

As for the total - it predicts that forty-eight points will be scored. This is exactly where the bookmakers have it. Therefore, the only thing I have looked at on the database is how the Giants have performed as underdogs to the Eagles.
  • The Giants are 18-13-1 when playing as underdogs in all meetings since 2001
  • The Giants are 12-8-1 when cast as road dogs in Philly
I'm Going With
NY Giants +7.5

Cincinnati @ Buffalo
The spreadsheet is one again siding with an against the spread cover, but straight up loss in the game between the Bengals and Bills.

It predicts that the Bills will win by two points and for the total amount of points scored to be fifty. Therefore, it's projecting plays on Cincinnati +5.5 and Over 49.

Checking the database, I've noticed that:
  • Cincinnati are 3-2 against the spread when underdogs
  • They're 1-1 as road underdogs in Buffalo
  • The Over is 7-5-1 in games played since 2001
  • The Over is 3-3 when the teams have met in Buffalo
I'm Going With

Dallas @ San Francisco
The spreadsheet has the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers to tie their game. This means a play on Dallas +4.

As for the total - the spreadsheet predicts it'll have fifty-one, meaning a play on Over 46.5.
  • Dallas are 3-1 when cast as underdogs against the 49ers since 2001
  • Dallas haven't played as underdogs when on the road against the 49ers in the qualifying years. They have won all four of those games straight up and went 2-1-1 as favourites
  • The Over is 7-3 in games played in Texas and California
  • The Over is 3-1 when the 49ers are the home team against Dallas
I'm Going With
Dallas +4
Over 46.5

I have put the four selections into a Lucky 15 bet at 50p a line.

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