I have just put the data into my NFL pointspread and totals spreadsheet for tonight's NFL Thursday Night Football game between the Raiders and the Rams.
The projection is extremely close to both lines because it has Las Vegas winning by a touchdown. The line, as of the time of writing, has the Raiders as -6.5 faves.
As for the total - it predicts forty-four as the key number. The totals line is currently 43.5.
Recommended Plays
Las Vegas -6.5
Over 43.5
With those recommended plays established, I took a look over meetings between the two teams since the 2001 season to see if I could make a case for either of them.
Five games have taken place. Here's what I've found:
- The Raiders have been favoured in three out of the five games. They failed to qualify in all of them. That is 0-3 as a favourite in these meetings
- Furthermore, they are 0-5 against the spread in all five of those fixtures
- The Over has nearly a patchier record going 1-4. The only time it went Over was when the Rams were playing in St. Louis in 2014
It is worth noting that this will be that the previous five games were held in either Oakland or St. Louis. I should also point out that the history would have deterred me from placing wagers on this game had I been interested in having a gamble tonight.
The spreadsheet went 1-1 last week when it correctly projected Buffalo to cover the -3.5 spread. However, it failed in regards to the totals play because it recommended Over 43.5 for the 24-10 game.
As you can see, the results have gone 13-11 so far this season. That's a strike-rate of 54.2% which is still below the minimum target of 55%.
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