As you'll see, in the table above, my NFL betting spreadsheet continued its current run of good form in picking the pointspread winners last week when the Tennessee Titans covered the spread as +3 underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. They not only covered, but won straight up with a score of 27-17.
Unfortunately, the totals plays continued its current run of poor form when it whiffed on the recommended play of Under 41.
The spreadsheet currently sits at 10-10 for the season.
With it being Thanksgiving in the USA, there are three games scheduled for today. I have opted to do what I have always done on Thanksgiving and only use the spreadsheet for the last game of the night because it is the Thursday Night Football game (okay, it's a contradiction considering I start these Thursday Night Football posts with the Season Kick Off game which isn't technically 'Thursday Night Football' as it's an NBC game).
In tonight's game, the Patriots travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. As of this morning, the home team is listed as -2.5 favourites. The spreadsheet expects them to cover the spread because it projecting them to win the game by four points.
As for the total - well, it's projecting an 'Over' because the prediction is for the game to have 47 points. That is higher than the current total line of 42.5.
Here are some observations I've made from looking at a database filled with results of meetings between the Patriots and Vikings since the 2001 season.
- There have been five meetings over those years. In all of those games, the Vikings have been cast as the underdogs. They covered just the once. I suppose if you want to use the following angle, this might suit an argument for taking Minnesota: 'the favourites in these meetings are 4-1 against the spread'
- The Vikings are 0-5 straight up in those games
- The Over is 1-4 in all games and is 0-2 in those played in Minnesota
- Another interesting thing I've noticed is the scorelines of the two meetings that took place in Minnesota. In 2006, the score was 31-7 to the Patriots. Then, in 2014, it was 30-7 to the Pats