Thursday, September 09, 2021

Predicting The TNF Week 1 2021 Winner

Each Thursday, during the NFL regular season, I publish posts in which I take a look at the night's upcoming game and use my spreadsheet to determine which team and total to side with.

I've returned for yet another go at this. I am also looking to add some more insight and reasoning to these weekly posts by referring to a database of results from the previous twenty seasons.

In tonight's game, the Super Bowl champions - the Tampa Bay Buccaneers - will host the Dallas Cowboys in the season opener.

I've put the numbers into the spreadsheet and compared the results to the bookmakers' point-spread and totals lines. The results are not pretty.

The spreadsheet projects that the Bucs will win the game by seven points. The current line sees the champs as eight-and-a-half point favourites. Therefore, it's leaning on Dallas to cover, but not win straight up.

Looking back at the previous meetings between Dallas and Tampa Bay, since 2001, the Cowboys are 1-1 when they've entered the fixture as underdogs. 

The Cowboys have won seventy percent of games straight up.

The spreadsheet predicts that there will be 55 points scored in the game. As of the time of writing, the line is set at 51. Therefore, the spreadsheet is recommending the Over. 

I'm not pleased with the Over recommendation. This is because the database notes that the O-U record is 2-7-1 since 2001. 

It should go without saying that I do not like what the spreadsheet predicts for tonight, but it is on record with the following plays:

Recommended Week 1 Plays 
Dallas +8.5
Over 51

I always close these Thursday posts by stating that I rarely bet on the TNF games. I publish these posts as a way to test out the spreadsheet before the weekend games.

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