I found myself in another Bet365 cash out conundrum on Sunday evening.
I placed a Heinz earlier in the weekend that would have paid out £460.94 if all six selections on the bet won.
Here's what I had:
1) West Brom -1.5 Asian handicap
The Baggies were the only Saturday leg of the bet. They won 7-0 against Gateshead in the FA Cup.
2) Baltimore Ravens +3
My system had Baltimore winning the game outright. So, as I was being given a field goal head-start, I took the points. Final score: 30-17 to the Ravens.
3) Crystal Palace to win
Palace were away to Dover. New manager at the helm is one of my favourite plays. I have written about it on here a lot in the past - when a new boss is in charge a team tends to play up. With that noted, Dover are eighty-six positions below Crystal Palace if every single league was put together. The divide was even more evident with a 4-0 scoreline.
4) Manchester City vs Sheffield Wednesday over 2.5 goals
It was close. Wednesday went ahead in the fourteenth minute. It took a 66th equaliser from James Milner to put the bet back on track. Milner ended up saving the day for yours truly - and his team - with another in the closing moments of the game.
5) Manchester United -1.5 Asian handicap
United are sixty-five positions above Yeovil Town, so I thought they would win by at least two goals. And that was in the very least. Yeovil played hard. Ander Herrera scored for the Red Devils in the sixty-fourth minute. With there no other goal in the latter part of the game, I was counting this one as a loser until Angel Di Maria scored in the 90th.
This then lead to tonight's game...
6) MK Dons vs Liverpool over 2.5 goals
With the final two legs on the bet winning for me in the late stage of the game, I had a feeling that my luck was due. I checked what the offer was to cash out the bet early. Bet365's offer was £351.73, which made for +266.23 from my stake.
I did the working out to see what would happen if the following scenarios played out:
- If leg six won, it would be the full £460.94 return. A +375ish profit.
- If it lost, I would make +91.48
I thought about it for about ten minutes.
Quitting with £266 extra was better than leaving with £91.48.
And what about if the sixth selection wins?
I don't think I'll be that irked tonight if a third goal goes in. I'm happy with the £266. I certainly would have ended up unhappy with the 91.48.
There's also the fact that the fourth and fifth selections won as last minute flukes. I can only ride my luck so far. Past experience tells me that.
As of right now, cashing out does feel like the best move.