Friday, February 13, 2015

One Autumn Weekend

February 13th.

I started this blog over nine years ago and have always used the 13th February post to remember my uncle who passed away on this day a while back.

This year's story doesn't even involve him. Not physically, anyway.

Back in late October of last year, I spent an evening going through all the horse races that were scheduled to take place at the Breeders' Cup meeting on the weekend of October 31st and November 1st.

I looked through the names of every horse to see if anything stood out. Yes, I know - it's a road to ruin. When we're talking a few pennies and pounds it's nothing. I'm a recreational punter when it comes to horses.

As I scanned through the list, two names struck me.

Carpe Diem: 'Seize the day' a motto that my uncle lived by made famous by Robin Williams' John Keating in Dead Poets Society. 

The second nag that caught my attention was Daddy D T. The D T stood out as it was my uncle's initials. The 'Daddy D T' could have also meant my father as he's a DT, too.

Carpe Diem was given a 3/1 price whilst Daddy D T found himself a 20/1 outsider. I stuck £1 each-way on each horse and then placed £1 each-way on them in a double.

Neither horse won their respective race.

However, they both placed!

The single on Carpe Diem brought back £1.75 - a loss of 25p. Daddy D T's finish saw a return of £6 (£4 profit). The double made £8.50 on top of what I laid out.

This is the part of the blog post where I'm meant to end things with a thought. I'm supposed to finish off at this point with a 'I bet he was looking down and fixed it for me to win' and thank him.

If he had done that, the horses would have won, right?

Not so fast..

You see, the two horses weren't the only bets I placed that weekend.

With nine events, I decided to place two special bets on all the races using some tips that I found in newspapers and online. I placed four horses into a Lucky 15 at 10p each-way a line (£3.00 in total) and then stuck the remaining five racers into a Super Yankee at 15p each-way a line (£7.80 total stake).

The Lucky 15 had two winners and two losers. The winning horses came in at 11/10 and 5/1. The bet returned £2.71, so it was a loss of 29p.

The Super Yankee was a whole different story.

I didn't bother watching any of the Breeders' Cup, but was keeping an eye on the results through Twitter. After each race concluded , I would check the horse's name and think to myself 'that sounds familiar, was it one of mine?' I would then refer to the betting website.

After doing this for a number of races - and noticing I had at least a few wins in the two bets - I decided to quit looking and check how I did the following morning.

As I was turning in for the night, curiosity got the better of me. I had to take one last look. Doing so woke me up.

In my account was the sum of £470.57.

I was gobsmacked to say the least.

Three of the five horses in the Super Yankee won straight up. Their prices were 8/1, 14/1 and 16/1. The bet had returned £443.48.

Still in shock, I showed my father the online betting slip that was still showing on my iPad. He looked at it puzzled then laughed.

'You doctored this!'

This was not the reaction I was expecting. In hindsight - and based on the times I have pranked him in the past - maybe it was appropriate.

After finally realising I was not pulling his leg he uttered the three magic words I hadn't heard in a long time.

You. Lucky. Bastard.

And that I was. There is no way I will be able to top that horse betting weekend from last year. That's not to say I'm going to quit while I'm ahead. I'll be back doing the same thing later on this year.

The following morning, I sat at the computer I'm at right now and started to type about the win. I then paused and deleted. It was a perfect moment to share the news.

But there was an even better day.



  1. Hey David.

    This is Paul Fitz here. As you have been very helpful with the wrestling betting on WWEleaks, I want to offer you a betting tip. I have a strong hunch that Ian Beale will be revealed as Lucy's killer in Eastenders. He is available at around 12/1 across the board on the bookmakers sites. I would highly recommend that you to take advantage of this price. At 12/1, this bet is an absolute steal!!! I'm looking forward to Fastlane. Best of luck.

  2. Hey Paul,

    I had Nick Cotton. but my bet died last night lol.

    Also did Peter Beale a few weeks ago.

    What makes you think it's Ian?

  3. This is how it is, David: as a punter who likes to capitalise on potential winning opportunities, I think this particular book can be heavily exploited. Im not a soap fan but I have been watching the bookmakers activity on this for ages. I've studied this from every conceivable angle. A few weeks ago, the producers of the show officially stated that there were 11 suspects in the running. This has been whittled down to another 5 or 6 if the latest BBC promo's are anything to by; viewing the promo videos, it can be safely assumed they have been whittled down. The bookmakers are currently taking bets on over 100 characters on the show. These casual punters are wasting their money because its not possible for 95% of them to be revealed as the culprit. The bookmakers will happily take money off mug punters who fail to read the forums, threads and message boards. Here's the thing- seeing as the bookmakers are taking bets on 100's of characters; with regards to the characters who are heavily expected to be in the running: their odds are massively inflated; for example: Jane is 4/1, Peter is 12/1, Cindy is 14/1 and Ian is 16/1. Eastenders will be celebrating it's 30th anniversary next week and this storyline is the culmination of a years worth of scriptwriting. They are celebrating their 30th anniversary and the reveal has to deliver a huge emotional impact to its audience- You can compare it to Rock/Cena at WM 28 with the long build up which was unveiled on Raw 51 weeks prior. The last few episodes, along with current BBC promotional material implicitly suggests that a Beale is responsible.
    I think that a year's worth of storytellling will culminate with Ian being revealed as his daughters killer. It would completely shock the audience. You can compare this whodunnit to the one in Twin Peaks 25 years ago when it was revealed that Laura Palmer was killed by her father. Leyland Palmer has a nervous breakdown that lasted for months after her murder and Ian has been exhibiting the same kind of behaviour.

    Read this :

    He is available at 16/1, David. Thanks for all the WWE coverage. This is my way of giving something back. If it doesn't work out, ill be very surprised but at 16/1 @ SkyBet, it is an absolute steal. If you are not convinced then place bets on all the Beale's- surely you can make money that way!

  4. Brilliant stuff, Paul.

    I did stick a pound on after I replied this afternoon. I took the 16/1 with Sky Bet.

    The only thing that is working against Ian being the murderer is the story that he was with Rainie around the time Lucy was killed. However, that could very well be a red herring.

    You make tremendous points. I am tempted to put a bit more on now.

    Thanks also for appreciating the WWE Leaks stuff as well.

  5. Nasty Nick was revealed to have committed Eastenders' first whodunit when Reg Cox was found to be murdered during the opening episode in 1985. Nasty Nick dies this week and the perfect antithesis to that story line would be the the unveiling of Ian as his daughter's killer during its big celebratory live week. Eastenders is paying homage to the past and the present, so both story lines would dovetail each other impeccably.
    This has been building up for a whole year so it has deliver in a huge, explosive way; there has to be a lasting emotional resonance felt. Along with Nick Cotton, Ian Beale has been in Eastenders from the very beginning. This is a nod to the past and present.
    Ive noticed that they are not using the word "murderer". They are using the word killer: this implies that it could have been an accidental death- perhaps manslaughter.
    David, they are giving odds of 14/1. In truth the odds of Ian being revealed as the culprit is 1 in 3 or perhaps 1 in 2. Eastenders is all about Family. If its not Ian, then its Jane- or perhaps Peter. Raine Cross is returning for the live week so her shenanigans with Ian might be exposed. The last two Eastenders whodunits have been revealed as female killers which indicates that this one will be a male killer. Laws of averages and all that....
    There is money to be made, David. Best of luck.